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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Maryland Eastern Shore

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:346.0
Current RPI:346
Expected SOS:322
Current SOS:322
Current Record:5-25
Expected Record:5-25
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-15
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:272
Expected OOC SOS:120


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-25346.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland Eastern Shore.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Maryland (74.0)B10A96-43L0%0.0
11-18Georgetown (169.0)BEA83-57L0%0.0
11-20St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A96-48L0%0.0
11-24Jackson St. (330.0)SWACN63-66W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCN60-90L0%0.0
11-27Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAA83-44L0%0.0
12-2American (336.0)PatH74-70W100%0.0
12-4Duquesne (259.0)A10A86-61L0%0.0
12-8Liberty (211.0)BSthA71-49L0%0.0
12-10Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA93-40L0%0.0
12-15Creighton (44.0)BEA87-36L0%0.0
12-20Iowa St. (144.0)B12A55-49L0%0.0
12-22Drake (166.0)MVCA81-57L0%0.0
1-3Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA85-82L0%0.0
1-6Hampton (237.0)MEACH92-83W100%0.0
1-8Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH84-89L0%0.0
1-13Savannah St. (197.0)MEACA87-59L0%0.0
1-15South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA66-62L0%0.0
1-20North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH64-66L0%0.0
1-22North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH60-63L0%0.0
1-27Howard (339.0)MEACH75-85L0%0.0
1-29Coppin St. (343.0)MEACA71-68L0%0.0
2-5Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH62-61W100%0.0
2-10Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA87-67L0%0.0
2-12Howard (339.0)MEACA84-56L0%0.0
2-17North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACA77-49L0%0.0
2-19North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACA78-69L0%0.0
2-24Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH63-74L0%0.0
2-26Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH59-47W100%0.0
3-5Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACN78-68L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland Eastern Shore's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland Eastern Shore's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland Eastern Shore.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC26.0826.0814.6614.66-18.44-18.44
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.074.0753.3353.330.270.27
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.983.9848.2848.28-0.14-0.14
HowardMEAC3.983.9820.6920.69-2.33-2.33
Norfolk St.MEAC3.953.9539.2939.29-0.85-0.85
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.873.8750.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC2.372.3753.3353.330.160.16
Florida A&MMEAC2.352.3525.0025.00-1.17-1.17
Morgan St.MEAC2.342.3434.4834.48-0.73-0.73
Delaware St.MEAC2.342.346.906.90-2.01-2.01
Coppin St.MEAC2.322.3212.9012.90-1.72-1.72
Savannah St.MEAC2.292.2941.3841.38-0.39-0.39
South Carolina St.MEAC2.262.2624.1424.14-1.17-1.17
GeorgetownBE1.851.8548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DuquesneA101.801.8048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA101.771.7777.4277.420.970.97
CreightonBE1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
Old DominionCUSA1.721.7277.4277.420.940.94
MarylandB101.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
AmericanPat1.721.7220.6920.69-1.01-1.01
LibertyBSth1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
Jackson St.SWAC1.721.7234.4834.48-0.53-0.53
Virginia TechACC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
DrakeMVC1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Iowa St.B121.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Tennessee TechOVC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
George WashingtonA100.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
RadfordBSth0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
RichmondA100.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
XavierBE0.140.1484.8584.850.090.09
West VirginiaB120.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
NavyPat0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Seton HallBE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
VillanovaBE0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
BaylorB120.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1193.9493.940.090.09
IowaB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.089.689.68-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Texas TechB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
IllinoisB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Little RockSB0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01